Introduction of the ACPO national crime recording standard to the MPS

Report: 14
Date: 11 October 2001
By: Commissioner

Summary

Following HMIC’s ‘On the Record’ and the proposals within the Home Office review of crime statistics, ACPO Chief Constables’ Council has agreed to introduce the new National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) across all 43 police services in England and Wales by 1 April 2002. This report seeks to appraise Professional Standards and Performance Monitoring Committee (PSPM) of the implications of this decision on the Metropolitan Police Service and action that has been put in train to make the MPS culturally and procedurally ready to implement this change within the given time scale. Members should note that the introduction of the NCRS will lead to an increase in the number of crimes recorded by the Metropolitan Police Service and this fact will have clear implications for Metropolitan Police Authority (MPA) target setting during the forthcoming year.

A. Recommendations

That

1. the Committee note the contents of this report and in particular the creation of the NCRS Implementation Project for the Metropolitan Police Service (MPS);

2. the Committee note the links made with the Corporate Planning Working Group, and thus the Planning Panel by the inclusion of the Project Manager for NCRS so as to take into account the likely effects of the introduction of NCRS on MPA target setting;

3. the Committee appoint a link member for this issue and

4. the additional costs, if any, be contained within existing estimates.

B. Supporting information

Introduction

1. Following the publication of HMIC’s ‘On The Record’ and the proposals within the Home Office Review of Crime Statistics in July 2000 ACPO Chief Constable’s Council agreed to introduce the new National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS) across all forty-three police services in England and Wales. This new standard has two main aims:

To move the crime counts for the forty-three services of England and Wales onto a more consistent national basis and;
To take a more victim-centred approach to crime recording.

2. The introduction of the NCRS will lead to an increase in the number of crimes recorded by the MPS. This is because the NCRS ensures that crime reports that previously might have been rejected at the reporting stage as either clearly non criminal, or lacking sound evidence, or which police may have been disinclined to record for other reasons will now be recorded. The increase will be an artificial one which bears no relation to real changes in the level of crime experienced by society. Nevertheless, it will be apparent that such increases will have clear implications for target setting by the Metropolitan Police Authority and that the media will require a thorough briefing to avoid as far as possible the increases being written about in an inaccurate or pejorative way.

Drivers for change

3. The case for NCRS is sound and logical and there are a number of drivers for change. First and foremost is the move towards a National Performance and Management Framework that will be reliant on police service comparisons. These comparisons cannot be made at present because of the variety of interpretations on the current crime recording rules. The NCRS will also provide a far more accurate account of criminality, which will be of assistance in further developing intelligence-led policing and partnership approaches. It also provides a more realistic picture of true demand for police services, which will be useful for future resource allocation processes.

General principles of NCRS

4. The proposed standard accords with three basic principles:

All complaints of incidents, whether from victims or third parties, and whether crime related or not, result in the creation of an incident report by the police.
Following the initial registration an incident will be recorded as a notifiable crime if:
1. the circumstances as reported amount to a crime defined by law (the police will determine this based on their knowledge of the law and counting rules) and;
2. there is no credible evidence to the contrary.
Once recorded the crime would remain recorded unless there was credible evidence to disprove that a crime had occurred.

5. The test to be applied in respect of recording a crime is that of the balance of probabilities. That is to say is the incident more likely than not the result of a criminal act? In most cases a belief by the complainant that a crime has occurred is sufficient to justify it being recorded as such.

The implications of the change for the Metropolitan Police Service

6. The move to NCRS is quite different to the change in the counting rules that occurred in April 1998 where clear comparisons were possible based on the new offences that were introduced at that time. The impact of the NCRS will be much more diffuse tending to increase the proportion of certain low-level offences, which had previously been brought to the attention of police but were not always recorded.

7. A small number of police services have already adopted the new standards. These are:

West Midlands - April 1999.
Staffordshire - October 1999.
Kent - April 2000.
Lancashire - April 2000.
Avon and Somerset - October 2000.

8. The timing of the implementation of the NCRS is clearly visible in the annual total recorded crime numbers produced in each police service. Table A, below, reproduces the total recorded crimes for each of these police service area and each one shows a visible inflation of the crime figures at around the time of the introduction of the new Standard. Chief Constables of these police services have stated that whilst they cannot ascertain precisely to what degree these changes have been the result of the new recording practice and to what degree they reflect real changes in crime, there does appear to be a strong correlation with the implementation of the new Standard.

Table A

	Changes	1998-1999	1999-2000	% Change	2000-2001	% Change
West Midlands	Apr-99	314,628	364,888	16.0 **	364,879	0.0
Staffordshire	Oct-99	91,919	98,852	7.5 *	104,705	5.9*
Lancashire	Apr-00	118,085	108,866	- 7.8	117,633	8.1 **
Kent	Apr-00	129,340	124,918	- 3.4	128,382	2.8 **
Avon & Somerset	Oct-00	150,089	147,104	-2.0	149,254	1.5 *
Total 5 police services		804,061	844,628	5.0 *	864, 853	2.4 *
38 Other police services		3,875,548	4,014,288	3.6	3,878,171	- 3.4

* Half a year’s implementation
** Whole year

9. Of particular significance to the MPS is the substantial increase of 16% shown by the West Midlands Police upon implementation of the NCRS. Further exploratory work with that police service has indicated that the true effect of the implementation has been masked by a drop in total notifiable offences that occurred simultaneously with the introduction of NCRS. The police service estimated that the true rise as a result of NCRS was a 35% increase.

10. The MPS Inspectorate recently carried out an inspection on the slippage between criminal activities reported on CAD as compared with recorded crime on CRIS. This work indicated a crime-recording rate for the MPS of 84.7%. This is substantially higher than the average crime-recording rate for 11 police services inspected by HMIC where the recording rate was 76%. However, there is substantial slippage between CAD reporting and CRIS recording, and removing or reducing this slippage, which is a possible consequence of moving to NCRS, could increase TNO’s by around 11%. In real terms this would mean an increase of over 107,000 crimes and would increase the figure of reported crime to well above 1 million crimes. Additionally, the MPS has a no-crime rate of about 5%. It is entirely predictable that a percentage of these reported crimes will no longer be recorded as no-crimes but be classified as recorded crimes

11. Unpublished Home Office research indicates that most of the increase in offences occurs at the lower level of the seriousness scale. The crimes most affected by the new standard, and which are more likely to affect a police service crime statistics in a significant number, are as follows:

Common assault (1,530 additional crimes in the five polices services).
Harassment (830).
Racially aggravated harassment (1350 although this is confused by the general desire to increase reporting and recording of these crimes).
Vehicle interference and tampering (1450).
Cheque and credit card fraud (780).

12. Other police service reports increased in violent crime. Staffordshire Police Service have experienced a large increase in all assault allegations and a concomitant reduction in the detection rate.

Implementation and supporting processes

13. The adoption of a more consistent and victim-orientated crime reporting standard will require unequivocal support and commitment from police authority, chief officers and local BCU commanders. MPS Management Board has already approved the following key actions:

Implementation date

14. As previously stated the latest date for implementation is 1 April 2002. It is apparent that the majority of police services who have yet to adopt the NCRS will do so at around that date and it would be sensible for police services to move together collectively rather than unilaterally. Earlier implementation at key pilot sites would provide some scoping of the effects of NCRS and the MPS will pursue this idea.

Police service crime registrar

15. The MPS has appointed a Police Service Crime Registrar in the form of Chief Superintendent Julian Bennett within the Inspectorate. This post acts as a final arbiter for both the audit process and the interpretation for counting rules and is an individual outside the operational line of command and answerable to the Senior or Chief Officer with overall responsibility for the accuracy and integrity of the crime recording processes.

Project team

16. An NCRS Implementation Steering Group has been set up under the Chair of Commander Hagon. A project manager has been recruited and a working/technical group set up. Research has commenced to establish the likely effect on recording levels of crimes likely to feature in the 2002/2003 planning targets. Further research with the previously mentioned police services indicates that they have or are about to implement the NCRS. An implementation plan is being created which includes the identification of all stakeholders viz MPA, Media, Crime Management Unit personnel, DCIs, Borough Commanders, Management Board, Community Safety Partners, Home Office, Mayor etc and suitable briefing methodology is being created. In addition, sound audit processes to ‘police’ the NCRS, which will be in tune with HMIC National Audit Programme, are being established. The NCRS is being integrated within the Borough Inspection Programme, which, as Members know, commences in October 2001.

17. To enable the appropriate debates around target setting to take place, the NCRS project manager will become a member of the Corporate Planning Working Group of the MPA that sits each fortnight.

Conclusion

18. The introduction of NCRS will have a clear impact on reported crime levels in London and elsewhere. The new Home Secretary is fully cognisant of this fact and has played his full part in supporting the rationale of the NCRS. The Home Secretary has stated that in future he will publish Home Office crime statistics in parallel with that of the British Crime Survey so as to provide evidence that the recorded level of crime will henceforth more accurately reflect the reality of crime recording as displayed in the British Crime Survey.

C. Financial implications

Without the necessary scoping work available, at this stage it is impossible to establish the financial implications of the introduction of NCRS to the MPS. However, a potential financial implication is the issue of whether the MPS has a sufficiency of CRIS terminals to cope with increased reporting levels. All stakeholders, including the Department of Information (DoI) are represented on the Steering and Working Groups previously mentioned.

D. Background papers

None

E. Contact details

Report author: Phillip Hagon 020 7230 0925

For information contact:

MPA general: 020 7202 0202
Media enquiries: 020 7202 0217/18